Author: Nooresh Merani

ONLINE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COURSE – Video Course

The Full Course on Technical Analysis is now uploaded and can be bought digitally with 1 year access to the recordings.

The Course is divided into 4 sections

Section 1 – Introduction to Basic Technical Analysis Concepts.

Section 2 – . Technical Analysis Chart Patterns, Indicators, Trendlines.

Section 3  -  Practical Technical Analysis – How to use it to invest,trade, find sectors, Full time Trading.

Section 4 – Various Softwares and Utilities.

Bonus – One Webinar for Q&A. Batch of 20 every time. Details to be sent on email.

More than 12 hours of content.

Course Fee = Rs 6000

Can buy the course from this link and go through the entire curriculum ( Course Content & Curriculum )

http://www.analyseindia.com/course/onlinetechnicalanalysiscourse/?tab=tab-curriculum

Whenever we add more videos you will get an e-mail for us.

For any queries or payment confirmation mail to nooreshtech@analyseindia.com or whatsapp on 7977801488

Link to the SEBI annual report - https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports/annual-reports/aug-2018/annual-report-2017-18_39868.html 

• FPI portfolio: Top 40 stocks Forty stocks account for 74% of FPIs’ equity portfolios in India
• Mutual fund portfolio: Top 40 stocks Forty stocks account for 63% of MFs’ equity portfolios in India
• LIC portfolio: Top 40 stocks Forty stocks account for 83% of LIC’s equity portfolio in India
• Of the 223 issues, 216 were from the private sector which raised ` 68,870 crore compared to 118 issues that raised ` 31,683 crore in 2016-17.
• In the cash segment, the turnover at NSE increasedby 43.1 per cent during 2017-18 compared to 19.3 per cent growth in the previous year. The turnover of BSE too increased by 8.5 per cent during 2017-18 compared to 34.9 per cent growth in the previous year.
• The turnover of all stock exchanges in the cash segment increased by 37.4 per cent to ` 83.2 lakh crore in 2017-18 from ` 60.5 lakh crore in the previous year.
• Of the aggregate turnover, NSE accounted for 87 per cent of the total turnover and BSE accounted for 13 per cent of the total turnover.
• Over the years, index options have emerged as the most traded instrument in the Indian derivatives market. During 2017-18, the share of index options in total turnover at NSE increased further to 81.8 per cent from 77.1 per cent in the previous year.
• So far, under mass media campaign, more than 67,980 TVCs, around 2, 25,040 radio spots, over 5,200 insertions in various print editions, around 962 screens in cinema halls were covered under the campaign. Further, around 53 crore bulk SMSes in various languages were sent cautioning investors against Ponzi schemes/unregistered CIS
• During 2017-18, the total amount of fees and other charges received was ` 624.44 crore (audited) as against ` 518.75 crore in 2016-17 (audited). The recurring fee was 48.90 percent in 2017-18 as compared to 60.70 percent in 2016-17 of the total fee collected. During the year 2017-18, the largest recurring fee of ` 78.00 crore was collected from Derivatives Members registration followed by ` 40.82 crore collected from Stock Brokers and Sub- Brokers. In non-recurring fee category, the highest fee was collected from Offer Documents and prospectuses filed (` 112.24 crore) followed by Buy Back of Share (` 106.12 crore) and Takeover Fees (` 29.70 crore).
• As on March 31, 2018 the total number of employees in various grades is 794 (including employees on deputation/ contract), out of which 698 employees are officers and 96 employees comprise secretaries and other staff. The male and female composition is 527 and 267, respectively.

There is a very long section on SEBI orders which is very interesting to see actions taken and how much time it takes.

Some more snapshots from the report

• Mumbai continues to be the leader in turnover.

• Free Float Market Cap at 45% of total market cap.

• Only 3121 stocks trade for more than 100 days.. No of listed maybe 5200.
• Only 1730 stocks have traded from more than 100 days regularly on NSE.

• CDSL catching up in terms of investor accounts but value-wise NSDL is way above.

• CDSL leads in geographical spread of DP locations.

• Options share increasing. But its due to calculation on notional value of the contract.

• Good increase in AUM and no of clients in PMS.

• AIFs picking up big time.

• Not a major jump in FPIs

• USA followed by Mauritius on in Assets Under Custody

• No of SME listings are ramping up in a very big way.

• Market cap is still small.

• Pending actionable grievances being reduced at a great rate.

• Sub Brokers reducing !!

• Given the high networth requirements doubt no of MFs are going to grow anytime soon.

• Way too much surveillance ?

An interesting take from Cartica Capital which is the 2nd largest public shareholder in the stock after Nalanda.

Video Link - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BnoCjHHyjJU

Check 2.40 to 4.10 . The overall interview is also interesting.

You might want to read up on Modigliani Miller Model for valuation

Intimation under Regulation 30 about investment upto Rs.14.50 crores (USD 2.1 million) by way of acquisition of 21,00,000 equity shares of USD 1 each of SUN Mobility Investor Ltd.(Jersey)

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/9942e6e3-ef09-4c96-ac6c-3ac533796c69.pdf

http://www.sunmobility.co.in/ 

Khemka group has indirect control and ownership.

Investment is being done at book value of USD 1 per share.

Although the total investment is only 14.5 cr as of now. Will this be a good diversification or diworsification ?

Disclosure – No Holdings. Not a recommendation.

The picture below justifies the quote

“A great deal more fiction is written in Microsoft Excel than in Microsoft Word”

Also funnily the Dividend payout to face value is shown as return to shareholders

8 out of top 10 Mutual Fund Distributors by Commission are Banks. With more than 3200 cr of commission income in between them.

Strategy is Highly Biased ?

State Bank of India makes 99% of its mutual fund commission income from distributing schemes of SBI Mutual Fund.

SBI seems to have picked up distributing mutual funds only in last 3 years.

In last 1 year commission income has gone up from 178.7 cr to 557.9 cr !!!

Year	Commission Income
2017-18	557.9
2016-17	178.7
2015-16	62.12
2014-15	69.38
2013-14	28.95
2012-13	36.43
2011-12	30.76
2010-11	37.64

ICICI Bank gets 73% of the mutual fund commission income from distributing ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

But ICICI Securities only gets 18.5% of the commission income by distribution of ICICI Pru MF. Is it because one cannot buy Regular Plans through ICICI Direct but account holders have a choice to select their own preferred AMC ?

ICICI Securities Limited

316.53

58.45

18.5

Source Links

AMFI commission Disclosures -

Websites of respective Mutual Funds

In the last few years Mutual Fund Distribution has picked up in a strong way.

The number of mutual fund distributors with a pay-out of 1 cr plus has almost gone up 3.5 times since 2011-2012.

The top 20 distributors by commission paid

NJ IndiaInvest continues to be on top.

8 out of the top 10 distributors are Banks !!

Out of all the banks SBI has increased commission income to 557.9 cr from 178.7 cr last year.

Source Links

AMFI commission Disclosures -

Websites of Mutual Funds

 

“Mid cap category was the worst hit, with 62 per cent schemes underperforming. We had a total of 34 mid cap schemes in our list.”

From this Nov 2017 article.
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/61736777.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

A lot of Midcap Mutual Funds underperformed the Benchmark – Nifty Midcap 100 in 2017.

One of the reasons was the huge move in Vakrangee Limited and a little bit of a outperformance move in Rajesh Exports. Both these companies have almost zero Mutual Fund Holdings . ( good to see such a boycott.)

But the index calculation does not care for valuations or any other governance concerns. Its a free float survivorship index. For example RCOM was the 7th Largest weight in Nifty in 2007 peak.

Stock	Value - Dec 2016	Weights - Dec 2016	Value - Dec 2017	Weights - Dec 2017	Value - Feb 2018	Weights - Feb 2018	Returns Dec16 to Dec17
Rajesh Exports	462	1.18%	805	1.47%	837	1.52%	74.24%
Vakrangee	137	1.58%	421	3.47%	163	1.34%	207.30%
Nifty Midcap 100	4402		6697		6199		52.14%

Of the 52% return in 2017 almost at 3-4% impact came from Vakrangee !!!