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ONLINE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS COURSE – Video Course

The Full Course on Technical Analysis is now uploaded and can be bought digitally with 1 year access to the recordings.

The Course is divided into 4 sections

Section 1 – Introduction to Basic Technical Analysis Concepts.

Section 2 – . Technical Analysis Chart Patterns, Indicators, Trendlines.

Section 3  -  Practical Technical Analysis – How to use it to invest,trade, find sectors, Full time Trading.

Section 4 – Various Softwares and Utilities.

Bonus – One Webinar for Q&A. Batch of 20 every time. Details to be sent on email.

More than 12 hours of content.

Course Fee = Rs 6000

Can buy the course from this link and go through the entire curriculum ( Course Content & Curriculum )

http://www.analyseindia.com/course/onlinetechnicalanalysiscourse/?tab=tab-curriculum

Whenever we add more videos you will get an e-mail for us.

For any queries or payment confirmation mail to nooreshtech@analyseindia.com or whatsapp on 7977801488

Quick classification, use and key players in the steel tubes and pipes industry

Part 1 – Interview

http://www.analyseindia.com/page-industries-90-pe-is-not-expensive-cartica-capital/

Part 2 – Cartica Capital Starts Selling

http://www.analyseindia.com/page-industries-90-pe-not-expensive-cartica-capital-part-2/

Part 3 – Selling Continues

Ever since Cartica Capital mentioned Page Ind is not expensive at 90 PE, they have been consistently selling the stock every quarter

Looking further at the Shareholding pattern of Page Industries we came across that holding of Cartica Capital has come down from 6,84,058 shares to 3,81,489 shares between June 2018 to June 2019. Share price of Page Ind. In June 2018 was 27814 . It made a high of 36335 in Aug 2018. And CMP is around 20420

As per latest announcement on stock exchange, Cartica Captial holds 332,338 shares representing 2.98% of shareholding

Source :

https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/B6DDF6F9_05C9_49CC_9DE2_AE20699E042A_180608.pdf

Price Chart

 

Historical Shareholding Details of Cartica Capital In Page Industries

Source : Trendlyne.com

New Launches across Cities

Sales across Cities

New Launches (Ticket Size Breakup) :

Bengaluru

Chennai

Delhi NCR

Hyderabad

Kolkata

Mumbai

Pune

Source : JLL

Pre Elections Period vs Post Elections Period - 2004, 2009 and 2014

Will History be Repeated in 2019 ?

An older article on my Blog. Why do Traders Go Bust and Investors Get Lost !!

The only way one can explain Retail Investor increasing in Kingfisher Airlines is – Hope for Good Things to happen !!

KINGFISHER AIRLINES	SHAREHOLDERS
Retail Shareholders (2008-2018)	No. of Shareholders	No. of Shares
March 31, 2008 (1L)	50,098	73,52,296
March 31, 2009 (1L)	64,730	1,26,90,145
March 31, 2010 (1L)	81,311	2,02,79,212
March 31, 2011 (1L)	95,421	2,66,73,862
March 31, 2012 (1L)	1,35,547	5,51,99,258
March 31, 2013 (1L)	2,30,069	16,64,78,828
March 31, 2014 (1L)	2,33,242	19,73,99,714
September 30, 2014 (1L)	2,33,393	21,16,70,473

· Shareholders holding upto 1 lakh paid up capital went up from 50k in 2008 to 2.3 lakhs in Sept 2014.

· In March 2012 there were 1.35 lakh shareholders and by September 2014 there were 2.3 lakh.

· The terrible part number of shares from 2012 to 2014 went up from 5.5 crores to 21 crores !!

Deja Vu – Jet Airways

5-7 years later we have another airlines – Jet Airways

The behaviour just does not change.

Jet Airways	SHAREHOLDERS
Retail Shareholders (2008-2018)	No. of Shareholders	No. of Shares
Mar 31 , 2018	89,686	48,69,633
Jun 30 , 2018	1,11,969	85,16,697
Sept 30, 2018	1,25,844	1,11,52,359
Dec 31, 2018	1,29,246	1,13,19,064
March 31 , 2019	1,37,524	1,29,72,794

From 4.29% of equity to 11.42% of Equity now with Retail Shareholders!! A total of 1,37,524.  ( less than 2 lakh share capital.)

The sad part is we had 2.3 lakh retail shareholders in Kingfisher but a company like Kotak Mahindra Bank has 2.23 lakh retail shareholders !!

Doing a quick check we see a Pidilite , Bata , Voltas and many known companies have lesser retail shareholders ( 2 lakh capital ) compared to a 1,37,524 of Jet Airways. Many smaller companies with longer track records have barely 5k-50k retail shareholders.

Will this ever change ?

The value of assets held by individual investors in mutual funds increased from Rs.11.66 lakh cr in March 2018 to Rs.13.54 lakh cr in March 2019, an absolute increase of 16.08%.

 

In March 2019, 23% of assets held by individual investors is from the B30 locations. 6% of institutional assets come from B30 locations. Institutional assets are concentrated in T30 locations, accounting for 94% of the total.

The proportion of direct investments in equity, to the total assets held by individual investors, was about 8% in March 2019.

Only 12% of the Individual Investor money in Equity Mutual Fund comes through the direct route out of that 10% comes through the direct route in T30 cities.

Geographical Spreads

Interesting to see – Manipur, Nagaland, Arunachal Pradesh, Andaman and Nicobar, Tripura, Sikkim, Mizoram and other smaller states slowly getting penetrated but are still miniscule ranging from 300-1200 crores.

SIP Data

Indian Mutual Funds have currently about 2.62 crore (26.2 million) SIP accounts through which investors regularly invest in Indian Mutual Fund schemes.

AMFI data shows that the MF industry had added about 9.13 lacs SIP accounts each month on an average during the FY 2018-19, with an average SIP size of about ₹3,070 per SIP account.

One way to source for ideas to research is to look for promoters increasing stake in their companies.

Insider Trading Disclosures - You can download the historical disclosures from the following link. ( Select the dates and click on the download button in the corner )

https://www.bseindia.com/corporates/Insider_Trading_new.aspx#

We have just highlighted the interesting insider trades in the last 1 year.  ( have only focused on entries where promoters have done a direct market purchase.)

Interesting Insider Trades 2018

No recommendations.

 

Some snapshots from a Kotak Report

 

The re-rating of ‘growth’/‘quality’ stocks (see Exhibit 14) and de-rating of ‘value’ stocks (see Exhibit 15) has continued for a long time and we are at a loss to explain the continued mismatch in the price-value equation for the two sets of stocks for such a long period of time. Our previous thesis regarding high correlation between global bond yields and
earnings yields of ‘quality’ stocks has been deflated by the continued fall in earnings yields of ‘quality’ stocks even at the time of rising global bond yields. Anyway, the argument about a potential de-rating in multiples of ‘quality’ stocks on the back of higher global bond yields
may no longer be valid as global bond yields will likely stay subdued due to a synchronized global economic slowdown.

Lastly, certain so-called ‘value’ companies have found new ways to disappoint investors on corporate governance, thereby
making the valuation argument largely redundant for such stocks.
It seems to us that the market has simply taken a ‘permanent’ view on the future of most companies, thereby effectively segregating companies into (1) long-term winners; these are companies with superior business models, trustworthy managements/promoters and good corporate governance practices where no price or valuation may be too high to own the
stocks and (2) long-term losers; companies with inferior business models and poor governance practices where no price or valuation may be too low to avoid the stocks.

Our comments in brackets.

Primary Market Issuances in 2018.    ( Issuances peaked out in 2017 )

Nifty Valuations - Using P-E for Non-Financial and P/B for Financial Companies.  ( Interesting take on valuing Nifty.)

Indian Equities strongly correlated to S&P 500 !!   ( More co-related to US than Asia)

Indias Contribution to World Market Cap - Higher than Average but lower than the highs.

Nifty EPS estimates - Motilal Oswal    ( Estimates have been wrong through 2014-2018 for all brokers. Will it be finally right ? )

Emerging Market ETF Flows    ( Is the tide finally turning for Inflows to India)

Market Cap Wise Performance in CY 18 - ( Huge divergence in large caps to broader market - Can it reverse in CY 19 )

The Power of Retail Investors    ( 2019 will be the real test for Retail Behavior in MFs)

(Midcaps Premium to large caps finally reducing but still higher. )

Hotel Valuations around the World - Kotak